WASHINGTON (ABC7) — Arctic air is plunging south into the region tomorrow and is going to hang around into the weekend. Meanwhile some moisture will pass to our south and re-energize off the mid-Atlantic coast.
So we see the ingredients for potential snow, but the models do not yet have a great grasp on where this storm will set up.
Placement is key in regards to whether we see nothing, a little something or a significant event.
This far out from a potential weather maker, our the our best guidance comes from the GFS (American) model and the European model.
At this point the GFS has been a little more bullish with the system, however, it's not currently running at 100%. The reason being: the government shutdown!
Evidently, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center) workers were deemed non-essential. This occurred at the worst possible time as an international format change was scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted.
The new change was just being implemented as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to make the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting.
A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced right around Christmas. Therefore, there is a solid case to be made that forecasters should lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS.