Winter storm with accumulating snow and ice likely for D.C. area Wednesday

    Storm Onset Wednesday

    Snow lovers may finally have something to celebrate Wednesday as the models are in better agreement that wintry weather is on the way.

    However, they differ on just what to expect and how much. As of late Sunday night, a couple of inches of accumulating snow are looking more likely with some potential for some dangerous accumulating ice off to our north and west. As for when it begins, both the European and American (GFS) model point to pre-dawn Wednesday.

    Storm Onset Comparison

    The morning rush Wednesday through midday presents the greatest likelihood for some accumulations of snow before a transition over to sleet, freezing rain and eventually all rain as the warmer air moves in. However, the models offer different timeline of just how long we hold onto the cold air and the snow. In these situations, when the high is to our northeast socking in the cooler air, models don’t always properly time out the retreat of the cold.

    Here are some snow total outputs for DC and our surrounding area. Right now, the European model has the heaviest pocket of snow to our northwest, while the American (GFS) model and its ensembles show it to be more aligned with central Virginia.

    All solutions bring measurable snow to D.C. – the one common denominator.

    Snowfall Model Comparison

    As previously mentioned, if the cold air lingers, we could have a serious icing event on top of the snow for our friends north and west of the city. While too early to tell, it could rival, if not outdo, last week’s ice storm.

    European Ice Potential

    The bottom line is that this storm is worth keeping in the back of your mind, while you enjoy the next two quiet weather days. At the earliest, this next winter storm will arrive pre-dawn Wednesday and looks to lead to major delays, if not cancellations. Stay tuned to #StormWatch7 for more information as the storm continues to evolve.

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