Tuesday Severe Weather: The latest risk and timing

10:00PM Update:{ } No reason to change this.{ } Risk of severe weather for Tuesday continues.{ } Damaging winds LATE and will increase risk of small whirlwinds but risk of large tornadoes very low.{ } The late outlooks from Storm Prediction Center remain the same

Usually when we get into mid-September the chances of severe thunderstorms diminish.{ } But Tuesday, the combination of a storm and rain moving near us and a strong cold front moving in from the west, will generate a combination of rain and likely strong winds and what is called "shear" in the air above us.{ }

All likely to combine to bring a high risk of strong and perhaps damaging winds.{ } Here is how we see the risk of tornadoes, wind, hail and flooding for Tuesday.{ }

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center{ }has the D.C. area right at the center of a 30 percent probability of severe weather Tuesday.{ }{ }

Here is one of the the things that show us the risk of severe weather Tuesday. It's a "model" or simulation of the temperature, moisture and wind profile above us Tuesday afternoon.{ }{ }

I've circled the winds near the surface and about 3 miles above us.{ } You can see the very moist winds from the south at the surface and the indication of winds about 75 mph above us and from the southwest.{ }{ }

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The combination of the change in wind speed with height, and the change in direction is what is wind shear and one of the indications of possible severe weather.{ } The very latest from some of the ensemble simulations at the Storm Prediction Center also do show a risk of possible small tornadoes because of all the shear or spin in the atmosphere.{ }

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No sign of a big outbreak, but even rotating rain showers can generate a small tornado or whirlwind in our area. { }More to come and we will also be live blogging starting Tuesday morning to keep you posted and any severe warnings go out immediately on our @StormWatch7{ }Twitter account.{ } We will keep you informed.

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