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Soggy Monday with Severe Storm Threat

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After a beautiful weekend, big changes are in store to start the work week. Get ready with the rain gear and stay weather aware. A warm front lifting into our area will bring a lot of moisture with it and spark off showers starting late Sunday night. As a second wave of low pressure develops along the warm front it will provide widespread lift and bring a good chance for heavy rain.

In some places, these storm will lead to very heavy rain in a short amount of time. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Monday afternoon and evening. Flash flooding is more likely close to the warm frontal boundary. Unfortunately, it is hard to know exactly how far north the front will make it. Right now it looks like our most likely places for flash flooding will be more urban areas along the I-95 corridor and through Southern Maryland.

While you might get a rather dry morning commute, heavy rain and some stronger storms will likely be moving through by mid-morning. Lunchtime looks like it could be a real soaker and scattered showers and storms will continue at least until the early evening.

Right now the Storm Prediction Center has parts of the DMV under a "slight risk" for severe weather. This threat will also be focused near the warm front and areas south of the front. The farther north and west you live, the slimmer your chance for severe weather. While not out of the question, the storm ingredients just aren't coming together in the same way as they are for places like Fredericksburg and Southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts within thunderstorms are the most likely concern, however weak tornadoes are not out of the question in these areas.

Let's talk totals. While most places will probably see closer to 1/2" to 1" there will likely be some areas that are closer to 3-4 inches. Don't focus on the map below as a guarantee for how much you'll see in your neighborhood. It is smarter to use it as a basis for how much rain we could see in some localities. Again, like the severe threat and the flood threat, our most likely areas for the biggest rain total will likely set up south and east of D.C.

Give yourself some extra time to get around Monday. You can probably expect your commutes to take a little bit longer than normal :/


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