Snow likely in the D.C. area tonight through Monday morning
Snow already started falling across parts of the D.C. area today with up to 1/2 inch in Culpeper and Rixeyville in Virginia and more on the way. Our region lies along a frontal boundary that extends west into the Tennessee Valley. High pressure over the northeast is ensuring a supply of cool, dry air to the region which will help create the chance for snow tomorrow morning.
Above is a look at the 12Z GFS Model depicting the high located over eastern Canada and the northeast and a frontal boundary extending over the D.C. area. High pressure is pushing the cool, dry air into our region, which means surface temperatures should be cold enough for snow tomorrow morning. As the low moves closer to the region later in the morning, enough warm air will get into the area above the surface to change the precipitation to rain.
Here is a look at the 4km NAM model, which hasn't been the most trustworthy as of late, but still has the same depiction of most of the other deterministic models with snow in the region tomorrow morning during the morning commute.Snowfall totals expected by our Hyperlocal Microcast
As far as snowfall totals, this will again be a storm that will rely on elevation, with snow already falling in the Blue Ridge and Mountains to the west. Higher snowfall totals will be experienced in higher elevations, with much lesser amounts closer to the D.C. area. Another issue with the D.C. Metro area will be the fact that snow will mainly just be found in the grassy surfaces, and will also more than likely be found on your car tomorrow morning so be sure to get up a couple minutes early to brush it off!
Timing has been showing snow coming into the region early tomorrow morning prior to sunrise and continuing as snow through the morning commute. Above is a look at our in-house RPM model depicting some moderate snow going on at 7am. This will surely have an effect on the morning commuters, so don't be surprised by it when you get up to go to work tomorrow morning. Winter Weather Advisories are posted in the immediate western suburbs with a Winter Storm Warning posted for northern Fauquier County and points west into the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley.