An area of low pressure has been moving through Texas over the past 24 hours, dropping very heavy rainfall and reports of severe weather. This system will be moving towards the D.C. area through Friday which will bring our own chance for some rain. Just when will it get here and how much rain can the D.C. area expect? Here is more in my latest afternoon analysis.
Timing of the rain: My thoughts on the onset of precipitation are that it should begin after midnight probably around 3am or 4am. The models have been pretty consistent with this and with precipitation in Kentucky as of now it seems about right. Now anything that does make it into the D.C. area is expected to be very light, probably below 0.05 inches. I think the steadier rainfall will begin tomorrow afternoon and hang through the overnight hours. It appears temperatures may once again be warmest right after midnight for the day on Friday as they should approach the 60 degree mark ahead of the front. Friday afternoon will see clearing and cooling with highs back into the 40s. Here's a look at home much precipitation the region could have.HPC Precipitation Forecast through Saturday Evening
What about the weekend? The weekend does appear to be nice, though at this point I'm not trusting one of the models as far as high temperatures are concerned. One of the models shows 58 for a high on Saturday which I think is way too high and a bit out to lunch. I'm forecasting for a high near 50 degrees. Sunday features a weak system that will move through in the afternoon. This weak area of low pressure may bring the chance for flurries to the area with highs in the lower 40s.