One More Wintry Round Then A Spring-like Warm Up

Four days after the biggest snow in the Nation's Capitol in four years, and yet another batch of wintry weather heading towards us tonight.{ } It is a relatively weak weather system, so snow totals will be minimal, but it could impact your Tuesday morning commute.{ }

High pressure will dominate our weather pattern today bringing tranquil weather conditions but colder than average temperatures.{ } The average high at Reagan National on February 14th is 48 degrees.{ } Clouds will increase late today, as the weather system in the Midwest tracks southeast.{ } Here are this morning's surface features and radar overlay.

Weather Prediction Center

With the snow in the Midwest, most of those areas are under a winter weather advisory (purple) or winter storm warning (pink).{ } Between four and eight inches of snow is expected today in Chicago.

National Weather Service

Precipitation from this system will arrive well after the Monday evening commute.{ } In fact, most of us will already be in bed by the time the snow starts.{ } The snow will move in from west to east.{ } Here's one of our local computer models at 11pm tonight showing light snow approaching the metro.

Microcast - Local Computer Model

The snow will continue through the overnight, possibly mixing with a little sleet/freezing rain in the metro area by dawn.

Update - Accumulations are still expected to be light, but not as light as originally stated in this blog. A general 1-3 inches will be possible, with the highest amounts along the Mason-Dixon line. Areas from D.C. and points northeast along I-95 to Baltimore and north have a decent shot at a couple inches of snow.

South and east of D.C., rain may mix in leading to lesser amounts, but pockets of freezing rain may also create a few slick spots, so the morning commute could be dicey in spots.

Below is a look at our in-house 12Z Microcast model predicted snowfall. It could be a little on the high end with D.C. closer to 1-2" and BWI and Frederick closer to 2-3", but it's not terrible so we wanted to show it to give you the idea that higher accumulations should be mainly north of D.C.

12Z Microcast Possible Snow Accumulations

Snow will taper off before sunrise and then it will dry out for the rest of the day Tuesday. Temperatures will also start to climb with more seasonal highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 40s.{ } Highs will climb to near 60 degrees by the end of the week and into the weekend,{ } making the possibility for snow tonight a little more manageable with more spring-like weather in sight.{ }