Labor Day Weekend. For as long as I can remember, it has never been an easy forecast and has rarely featured perfect weather. Last year was really hot, with Saturday through Monday seeing temperatures of 92, 93 and 92 respectively. 2012 recorded 1.64" of rain to start the holiday weekend, 2011 ended the weekend with 1.36" of rain, and 2010 was near perfect, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the 80s and low humidity with dew points in the 40s and 50s.
That leads us to this weekend. The forecast has been favoring higher levels of heat and humidity to return to the region this weekend and hanging around for the start of September.
A warm front will be knocking on D.C.'s doorstep Saturday and high pressure will be centered in the northern Atlantic. This will lead to the aforementioned increase in humidity levels, meaning more clouds and dew points back in the mid to upper 60s. At this point, Saturday looks to be the coolest part of the weekend with highs in the mid 80s under partly sunny skies. It may even be mostly cloudy to start the day, but sunshine should filter overhead by midday. Even with the frontal boundary, Saturday should feature the lowest threat for rain, with the highest possibility in the mountains.Temperatures should be the highest on Sunday (Image Courtesy WeatherBell.com)
By Sunday, the warm front will move north bringing in warmer air overhead. OK, let's call it hot air, as high temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 90s by the afternoon hours (See image above). Combine that with high dew points and energy sliding in from the west and afternoon thunderstorms appear to be a solid bet. Some storms may also be heavy rainmakers, as there will be abundant moisture in the atmosphere.
Below is a look at the forecast precipitable water values for Sunday, which when are this high in the 2 inch range, may mean the potential for some very heavy downpours. Be sure to keep an eye on Doppler Radar this weekend, and if you're out at the pool, find us on your phone!Precipitable water values forecast for Sunday per the ECMWF Model (Image Courtesy: WeatherBell.com)
Monday will have similarities to Sunday, as the heat and high humidity won't be going anywhere fast. Troughing east of the mountains will set up by the afternoon again allowing for storm chances later in the day. Highs Labor Day aren't forecast to be quite as hot, topping out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.Labor Day Weekend forecast updated Thursday Evening
Delmarva Beach Forecast
How will the beaches fare this weekend? With the slight easterly component to the wind on Saturday, it may be on the cooler side to start, with highs around 80 degrees under partly sunny skies Saturday.
Sunday and Monday do look pretty nice at the beach. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s each day under partly cloudy skies. There is a slight chance for a few showers and storms late in the day, but right now the possibility is only around 20-30%.Beach Forecast as of Friday morning
The rip current risk should subside by Friday and ocean conditions should calm down through the weekend. Regardless, you may want to double-check with the lifeguard before entering the water if you're not a strong swimmer.