As Labor Day weekend approaches, everyone is sharpening up their plans to head to the beach, head to the pools and get outside for one last nice summer weekend before more area schools get back into session and vacation schedules quiet down. Looking back at the past two Labor Day weekends, heavy rain has paid a visit each time, with 1.64" on Saturday of last year and 1.36" on Labor Day Monday back in 2011. What about this year? Some questions still remain, but here is your first look.Labor Day Weekend Forecast
Once today's area of low pressure pushed through the region (be sure to follow radar here!), a calmer weather pattern will take shape for the remainder of the work week. While this is nice for people that have Thursday and Friday off, it may not necessarily be good for the holiday weekend ahead.
The pattern features very weak upper-level energy swinging into the area Saturday. This will allow for a possibility of a couple thundershowers, but looking at the atmospheric profiles, Saturday will have the lowest instability and I think the best chance for storms will be closer to the Blue Ridge Mountains and points west. Keep an eye out if hiking or camping.Weekend Consecutive Waves of Upper-Level Energy
Sunday will have better instability and another weak wave of energy, allowing for more showers and storms which I think will be in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a higher likelihood that storms will be closer to the D.C. Metro Sunday afternoon and evening, but the majority of the day should feature partly cloudy skies.
Labor Day Monday looks to be the worst out of the group. A potent cold front is expected to pay a visit to the region, bringing widespread showers and storms to the area by the afternoon and evening. There may even be the potential for a few severe storms, though at the current time, forecast confidence is low as it is still 5 days out.
Basically, shower and storms are in the forecast this weekend, but we are NOT expecting a washout of a weekend. Looking at the above graphic, you have to note that this also includes precipitation today, which is expected to be rather heavy in and around D.C. Saturday and Sunday will be the better part of the weekend. If you're heading to the Delmarva Beaches, I think this will also be the case, with Monday again having the best chance for storms. Highs at the beaches are expected to reach the low to mid 80s.