Heavy rain possible in the D.C. area tomorrow; Brief mix possible

A strong winter storm is affecting the Central Plains once again with heavy snow and blizzard conditions stretching from northern Texas through western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Up to a foot or more of snow is expected in those areas, along with wind gusts over 50 mph at times.

As I write this now, Amarillo, Texas is seeing blowing snow with sustained winds at 40 mph, gusts to 52 mph, with a foot of snow already on the ground. See the video here.

As this strong storm moves into the Midwest, another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Carolinas Tuesday morning. This new area of low pressure will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the D.C. area through the afternoon and evening hours.

With chilly morning temperatures and weak high pressure located to the north of D.C., a light wintry mix may be experienced at the onset of precipitation closer to noon, but it will be very short-lived.

4km NAM model forecast for Noon

Areas west of the Blue Ridge may experience a longer duration of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, but it should all change to rain by the afternoon. I even circled the area in the model above that shows temperatures at or below 32 degrees at noon.

This should be limited to the Shenandoah Valley and the sheltered{ }valleys in the mountains west of Interstate 81.{ }A Winter Storm Watch is in effect over the mountains of West Virginia for the threat of freezing rain, but no watches or advisories are posted for our viewing area.

HPC Precipitation Forecast for Tuesday

Heavy rainfall will be possible with this system as well, with up to an inch of rain possible through tomorrow night. The HPC graphic above for the precipitation forecast shows the potential for 0.75" to 1" of precipitation for the D.C. area.

This would be great as Reagan National is down 1.5 inches of precipitation since Jan. 1, while Dulles and BWI Marshall are down around a half an inch.