Once we get through the possibility of severe storms on Monday and Tuesday, cooler air will move right into our region for the end of next week.
Classification. Yes, we are a society that likes to name things: Snowmaggedon, Commutergedon, SnowGuinness, etc. Where a squall line is a “derecho” and where a spill of cold air from the north is coined the “polar vortex.” I get it. I really do. Classification of tornadoes or hurricanes is absolutely necessary, however, to call every snowstorm a “blizzard” just makes me shake my head-but then move on with my life.
Before 2012, we had NEVER heard of the term “derecho” and now it seems every storm that comes through during the summer is classified as that. Before last winter, we NEVER EVER heard the term “polar vortex” used before and now, several months later, we gravitate right to it.
It is all in the eye of the beholder and left up to interpretation amongst professionals in the meteorology field. Although I didn’t want to touch this subject with a ten foot pole, I feel that we are forced to say something. The storm on Tuesday night left so many people wondering whether a “derecho” in fact hit the area that we had to reach out to the Storm Prediction Center to include their thoughts. So now onto the “polar vortex” or let’s just say the “unusual pattern setting up for Mid-July.”
All in all, we do know that next week unseasonably cold air will migrate out of the north and into the United States, spreading out into the Mid Atlantic. There is so much misuse of several weather terms throughout the year that I thought we should revisit the term “polar vortex”.
Our friends at the National Weather Service in New York made this graphic after the hysteria in social media yesterday about “the return of the polar vortex.” They reminded everybody on their Facebook page that “the most basic definition for “polar vortex” is that it is a piece of energy that comes from the polar region. It is generated by the large difference in temperature between the tropics and the poles. The temperature gradient is strongest during the winter; therefore it is more likely to affect mid-latitudes (our area) in the winter. However, it can affect us in the summer, but it is not nearly as strong as it is in the winter.”
There are differing opinions in the meteorology field on whether this is a “true polar vortex’ and that is why you will see so many different articles ALL OVER the internet on whether this is or it is not. This is what the Weather Prediction Center put out yesterday:
“A DEEP UPPER LOW... NOT THE POLAR VORTEX AS ITS ORIGINS ARE FROM THE NE PACIFIC... WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOT OF AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.”
Climate Prediction Center
Great. So in the grand scheme of things I ask myself “does it really matter to the general public what we coin this?” The answer I give myself is “no”.
So here is what we know. We have some unseasonably cold air coming down from the north and spilling into the region. The Midwest will get the brunt of the cold weather where temperatures could be as much as 20-25 degrees below normal! That is very impressive for summertime climate. Our normal temperature in the D.C. area for this time of year is a warm 89 degrees. The Climate Prediction Center has given us about a 40%-50 of seeing below normal temperatures next week.
Now, I got to tell you, if you are expecting temperatures in the 50s/60s then you have to travel to the north and west of here. Temperatures next week (starting Wednesday) are going to fall below normal but we are still talking 70s/80s. Here is a look at our 7-day forecast:
However, before we even get to that cooler air moving in, as you notice on the 7-day we are heating up! Temperatures on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will have no problem reaching into the 90s. With the added July humidity, we are talking about heat indicies approaching 100 degrees all with the added threat of severe weather each day. The Storm Prediction Center has ALREADY outlined us in an area for a shot at severe weather on Monday into Tuesday:Storm Prediction Center
So all in all, are we cooling down slightly for the end of next week? Yes. Are we going to have to deal with heat and humidity and severe storms at the beginning of next week? Yes. It is going to be a roller coaster week and we will certainly welcome the cooler air by the end of next week, not matter what we want to call it.