Our real first taste of fall will occur over the next few days, with cloudy skies, scattered showers and MUCH cooler air. The current forecast shows temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday, 50s Thursday, low 60s Friday and Saturday and back to the upper 60s on Sunday.
The forecast is subject to change but for the most part, the dreary conditions can be expected at least through Sunday. Here's the set up:An area of low pressure exists along the Carolina coastline, which will move north up the east coast over the next 48-72 hours. This will bring the clouds and precipitation with it, which will overspread the D.C. area by late Wednesday.
Currently, the coolest most dismal day of the week appears to be Thursday. Highs shouldn't get out of the 50s on Thursday, and may only reach the mid 50s in some areas (even with our forecast of 59 on the 7 day). Friday shouldn't be much better, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and the chance for patchy drizzle.Precipitation Forecast from the WPC Tuesday morning through Sunday morning
Above is an idea of how much rain can be expected over the next few days. The highest probability for heavy rain exists the farther south and east you are from D.C. Closer to town though, an inch to 2 inches is still possible through Friday night. Even with the recent heavy rain, flooding shouldn't be a problem, but there may be some ponding of water so take it slow on the roads Thursday and Friday. Moderate to heavy rain will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday and light rain is expected Friday.
The start of the weekend should experience slightly milder temperatures back into the low and mid 60s, but at this point we still believe the shower chances will exist Saturday. Sunday may get a little bit of sunshine back into the area but for the most part should remain cloudy and cool with highs still in the 60s.
After these next 5 days, it will be rather hard to believe the first 6 days hit 85F or higher, including two 90F or higher days as well. These cooler temperatures aren't out of the ordinary though in the month of October. Looking at the past 5 Octobers dating back to 2008, each of those months had a span of 3 to 4 days in a row in the 50s to lower 60s. 2009 even had 4 days in a row in the middle of the month with highs of 52, 50, 45 and 47 in consecutive days.
At least it's better than the snow the area recorded (0.6" at Dulles, more north and west) on October 29th, 2011. Yea, I didn't want you to forget about that!