Coastal Storm Heading Our Way. How Much Rain This Weekend

I feel like a broken record talking about how dry it's been, as of late.{ } Up until today, most of the area is about 5 inches below average for the year!

2012 D.C. Rainfall Deficits

Abnormally dry conditions persist across our area with parts of the Eastern Shore of Maryland under a severe drought.{ } Things are about to change, though.{ } The weather pattern is changing for this weekend and that means some significant rainfall for DC and many areas along the East coast.{ }{ } Along with the beneficial rain will also come some much cooler temperatures, so get ready for a spring chill!{ }

Let me first explain what is going to happen this weekend.{ } A{ }cold front will{ }approach DC by mid-afternoon Saturday and will trigger{ }afternoon showers and thunderstorms.{ } That's not the main reason we think it's going to be a wet weekend.{ } At the same time the cold front{ }moves into the region, an area of{ }low pressure will develop over{ }the Gulf{ }of Mexico and will{ }intensify, as it moves up the East coast.{ }{ }Here's a snapshot of the 18z GFS model at 2PM Sunday afternoon.

18z GFS

Notice the low sitting right off North Carolina and all of the precipitation around the Mid-Atlantic.{ } The low will continue to strengthen and move North (and eventually a bit farther West over New England), but will not only bring D.C. a steady rain on Sunday, but will also usher in some much cooler air.{ } In fact, temperatures on Sunday and Monday will only be in the 50s!{ } That's a bit of a change from the *near 90 degree temperatures we had on Monday!{ }

So back to the rain, just how much are we going to get?{ } Well, I think we could easily pick up an inch.{ } I wouldn't be surprised if some spots got closer to two inches.{ } The most rain will likely fall on the Eastern Shore of Maryland where conditions are even drier than right here in D.C.{ } Regardless, the bulk of the steady rain, associated with the coastal storm will fall throughout the day on Sunday and eventually taper off early Monday.{ } Here's the latest QPF from the HPC.


If you were hoping to get some yardwork done this weekend, well, my advice would be to get it done early Saturday morning.{ } Before the front arrives, we'll see a little{ }sunshine, but it will be warm with temperatures in the 70s.{ } Then showers and storms will develop and then that coastal storm will bring us the rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.{ } For all of you that did a raindance... it looks like it worked!