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FROM STORMWATCH7's DEVON LUCIE:
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Partly Cloudy | Cold
Winds: Northeast 5 - 10 mph
Mostly Cloudy | Cold
Lows: 26 - 35
Winds: North - 10 mph
Late Afternoon Rain | Changing to Snow Late
Highs: 40 - 48
Winds: East 5 - 10 mph
Cloud cover was a bit more abundant southeast of Washington today while more sun was out northwest of town. Temperatures only managed the mid 40s with the clouds around in most cases. Let's get to what we all want to know, what's going to happen on Monday and Tuesday?
Point number one, this is an extremely difficult forecast completely different from the blizzard two weeks ago. Point number two, that means there is a high potential for error in the placement and totals for snow, but I'll do my best to show what's most likely according to the best information at this time.
Most forecasts have now converged on developing the area of low pressure at the ground (the surface low) just to the south of the Washington Metro. Forecast consensus also brings a relatively thin band (about 50 miles or so) of heavier snow that looks to track just north of Washington, clipping the north end of the D.C. metro and farther north towards the Mason-Dixon Line. Look for rain to begin sometime after 3 PM in the immediate D.C. metro on Monday, eventually changing over to snow sometime after sunset. Best ball park time frame for the snow changeover? Between 7 PM and midnight.
Snow appears likely through the immediate D.C. metro and points north and west through Tuesday morning, while areas towards Culpeper, Fredericksburg, and Lusby should get mostly rain and a rain/snow mix overnight. Temperatures are expected to warm after sunrise then melting some snowflakes to rain drops by midday around the D.C. metro while cold enough air should be locked in place to keep the snow going closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. The accumulating precipitation should end by Tuesday evening that puts down the heaviest snow band from the extreme northern portions of the immediate D.C. metro in Loudoun, Montgomery, and Howard Counties to points northward that could receive upwards of 3"-6" with a few spots that could 'bulls eye' above 6" along the Pennsylvania border. For the Washington metro, look for 1"-3" of heavy wet snow and for points south mainly just rain to a rain/snow mix.
For most of the D.C. metro from Ashburn, to Wheaton, and over to Beltsville, air temperatures should remain right at or above freezing for the duration of the event, so roads should just be wet and passable. But for areas that find themselves in the heavier snow track from just north of Winchester, to Germantown, to Laurel, and points farther north there might be heavy enough snow to overcome temperatures right around freezing to coat some of the roads creating some slick/slushy conditions. For points closer to the border, air temperatures could be cold enough that snow covered roads could be a problem by Tuesday morning.
After the snow, look for strong northwest winds to drop in frigid air by the end of the week and towards next weekend with highs around freezing, but feeling more like 10s and 20s when the wind chill is taken into account.
Do note this is a much lower confidence forecast than two weeks ago and there could be major shifts to the heavier snow track and associated temperature profiles if forecasts pick up on any slight shift in the track of the surface low.
The entire StormWatch7 weather team will be keeping track of any changes to come in our forecast, so stay with ABC7 for all of your latest information.
For the latest weather headlines, stay with ABC 7 News, NewsChannel 8 and wjla.com.
Today's Record Temperatures